When the Suns lost Raja Bell after that calf injury (he may have been on the court the last two games, but that wasn't really him), it was all over. The Phoenix Suns are a tough team (no matter what the game they play looks like) with huge hearts, but there is simply no way that a six-man rotation has enough to stay with the Dallas Mavericks. Without Bell, the Suns wouldn't have made it past the LA teams.
So, my 4-2 prediction of the Heat dumping the Pistons comes to pass, and my prediction of a 4-2 Dallas win (after Bell went down - my initial prediction was Suns 4-3) also comes to pass. Great batting average so far.
Now, we have The Dirk and Josh Howard vs. The Big Smooth and Dwayne Wade. More compelling is that Miami and Dallas have never played for the O'Brien Trophy before, much less taken home a championship. Also, the methodical, defense-oriented teams that have dominated the NBA Finals for so long (Pistons, Spurs and yes, Jordan's Bulls) are now gone. Miami and Dallas are balanced teams that can score as well as defend. Each has at least a pair of players that can dump 20 on you any time, with supporting casts that feature at least a couple of players each that can also dump 20 on you on a good day (Terry, Harris, Stackhouse, Walker and White Chocolate).
I also love the coaching matchup. Grizzled all-world, all-time great Pat "Armani" Riley, vs the rookie Coach of the Year Avery Johnson. In a league where coaches can easily be overshadowed by their star players, these two guys have full no-nonsense control of their teams. I love that. Flip Saunders had the Pistons unravel under him. Mike Brown is already in a Kobe situation with Bron-bron. Not these guys.
So. Matchup time.
C - Shaq and Zo vs 3D (Diop, Dampier and the suspended DJ Mbenga). Are you kidding me? Advantage: Heat, and they had better take advantage of it whenever they can. Shaq has to stay out of foul trouble. If he can avoid the offensive fouls, he could average 30 on the 18 Dallas Fouls.
F - Haslem and Posey vs Howard and The Dirk. Are you kidding me? Advantage: Mavs. Just as no one can stop Shaq, no one can stop Dirk. Bowen tried and failed. Marion tried and failed. James Posey isn't going to make a dent. Miami's problem is that these two guys are very erratic shotmakers, which will free Howard to wreak havoc on defense (especially if he covers Wade). If Riles is forced to play Walker for long stretches, Dirk may well average 40, or Howard 30. Riles has his work cut out for him here.
G - Jason and Dwayne vs Jason and I'm guessing Adrian Griffin. Harris will come off the bench, because there's no way he or Terry can guard Wade. If AJ uses Hoard on Wade, that leaves a mismatch with Posey who they don't want to get untracked. So I'm guessing Griffin will start on Wade. Terry is no slouch though, and Wade will have to take him since J-Will is a sieve and Payton is too slow now. If Terry can get untracked, it will cause all sorts of problems. Advantage: Even.
Bench - I think this is where the Mavs will clean house. Miami's bench is weak beyond Mourning, who will only be useful if the Mavs play Detroit-speed slowball (I'm betting they don't). Walker and Payton are defensive liabilities. So are Stackhouse and Harris, sure, but they make up for it by being good meshes with the Dallas scheme. When Walker is on the floor Miami becomes a train wreck. Advantage: Mavs.
Coach - Even.
X-Factor: Can you say hack-a-Shaq? I thought so. The Diesel's free throw liability is a problem as always. Wade is also ill at the moment. He needs to be 100% if Miami is going to have a chance to beat Dallas.
Prediction: Dallas wins 4-2.
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